"Birth Legacies and State Failure," with Douglas Lemke.
We argue patterns of state failure are influenced by variation in how states emerged as independent political actors. In particular, states with positive birth legacies, those whose emergence required relatively high levels of capacity and legitimacy, should be less fragile and likely to experience state failure over time than states that experienced less auspicious births. We assess this claim on the universe of sovereign states in the international system between 1816 and 2002 with multistate duration models that estimate the probabilities states transition into and out of periods of state failure. Consistent with our expectations, we find that states with positive birth legacies are less likely to experience state failure.
We argue patterns of state failure are influenced by variation in how states emerged as independent political actors. In particular, states with positive birth legacies, those whose emergence required relatively high levels of capacity and legitimacy, should be less fragile and likely to experience state failure over time than states that experienced less auspicious births. We assess this claim on the universe of sovereign states in the international system between 1816 and 2002 with multistate duration models that estimate the probabilities states transition into and out of periods of state failure. Consistent with our expectations, we find that states with positive birth legacies are less likely to experience state failure.
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